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The top ten countries exporting pesticides in China are all caught by the epidemic situation

        The top ten countries exporting pesticides in China are all caught by the epidemic situation

                                                                                                                         DATE:             2020-05-25

As the first "black swan" incident in 2020, the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has been effectively controlled in China after nearly two months of domestic efforts, and confirmed cases in many provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities have been newly added for several consecutive days. However, the epidemic situation in foreign countries is currently in an outbreak period. How much impact will the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic have on China's pesticide exports?

   China's pesticide import and export trade continued to grow in 2018, but China's total pesticide imports and exports accounted for a very small proportion of the country's total imports and exports. According to the statistics of the total pesticide exports in the first three quarters of 2019, the growth rate is only 2.58%, which is far lower than the 8.3% increase in 2018. From the point of view of export target market countries, the concentration is also quite high. The export volume and export value of the top ten countries in the target market countries account for more than 49% of the total.

   According to the data of the Pesticide Inspection Institute of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of pesticide exports in China in the first three quarters of 2019 was 1.0746 million tons, and the top ten countries in the export target market accounted for 49.04%; the total export was 6.456 billion US dollars, and it accounted for 52.68% (Table 1). According to the data for the whole year of 2018, China's pesticide exports amounted to 1.405 million tons, and the top ten countries in the export target market accounted for 51.58%; the export value was 8.082 billion US dollars, accounting for 56.48% (Table 2). It can be seen that the importance of the top ten countries in China's pesticide export target market to China's pesticide export is naturally self-evident. Next, we will look at the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic to China through the top ten countries in the target market country. The impact of pesticide exports.
   The epidemic is destructive to production and life. I believe that every Chinese who has experienced the "long holiday" of the New Year is very impressed. If the epidemic situation cannot be effectively controlled abroad, it will inevitably have a certain impact on the export of pesticides. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 4.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% over the same period last year. The author has tracked the World Health Organization's report on the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in the past week (Figure 1; Table 3) and found that all the top ten countries in China's pesticide export market except Paraguay have confirmed cases (Table 3). According to the data of the epidemic on March 9 given by the news, Paraguay currently has a confirmed case. The top ten countries in the export target market have been captured by the epidemic. The author will make a brief summary of the situation in the top ten countries in the export target market. Analysis.

   Judging from the number of diagnoses, the country most affected by the epidemic is the United States. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2020, the United States is China's third largest trading partner. The total value of Sino-US trade is 422.5 billion yuan, down 19.6%, accounting for 10.2% of the total value of foreign trade. Among them, China's exports to the United States were 300 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.5%; imports from the United States were 122.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3%; trade surplus with the United States was 177.7 billion yuan, narrowing 38.9%. For pesticide exports, from the first three quarters of 2019, it is expected that the decline in 2019 will be relatively large. Superimposing the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, China is not optimistic about the US pesticide export in 2020.

   On February 21, local time in the United States, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a warning that the new coronavirus may spread in the United States, and officials from the US Department of Health are preparing for a possible new coronary pneumonia pandemic. On February 25, a senior CDC official warned on Tuesday that the spread of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in the United States is inevitable, it is only a matter of time.

   According to the Los Angeles Times website on March 8, Scott Gottlieb served as the Director of the Food and Drug Administration in the first two years of the Trump administration, and he was on the CBS's "Nationwide" program. Zhong said: "We have passed the time of containment." Now we need to take active measures to slow down the spread of the virus.
   Followed by Australia, according to the data given by Tencent News, a large number of patients were cured and discharged. This is also due to the extremely high sensitivity of the Australian government and various sectors of the local community to the prevention of the epidemic. Various measures were taken at the first time to protect the health and safety of their residents, which is still within the controllable range. And Australia is planning for the "worst case". According to the Australian "New Daily", Australia ’s chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said on March 5 that he is currently studying the outbreak from the "most benign" state to the virus. The possibility of infecting millions of people within a few weeks.
   Although there are confirmed cases in Southeast Asia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, they are basically within 100 and sporadic, and the cure rate is basically more than 50%. The government and the society can take active measures to respond and quickly control the spread of the epidemic.
   India has a better control of the epidemic, with the exception of 23 people diagnosed on March 5 and sporadic occurrences at other times. After the outbreak of the Chinese epidemic, the Indian government was very vigilant and took a series of decisive measures, including the rapid withdrawal of overseas Chinese from Wuhan, the temporary ban of all Chinese people, the temperature test and regular return visits of 200,000 Chinese people who entered the sea and air. Symptomatic passengers take timely isolation and monitoring measures, and those who chartered to withdraw to India are also isolated and observed. In addition, the warning of the new coronavirus on the front page of the official website of the Ministry of Health of India has made the Indian society have a clear understanding of the epidemic situation, coupled with the unique climate and weak medical system, which can prevent the spread of the new coronavirus in India. Come on.

   The number of diagnoses in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Russia in South American countries are all within control.
   As far as the control of goods is concerned, most countries are currently guided by the recommendations of the World Health Organization and have not taken control measures against goods in China, but some countries and regions have adopted a series of control measures against goods. According to incomplete statistics, as of March 6, at least 24 countries and regions have taken control measures against Chinese goods trade, namely: Cameroon, Armenia, Mauritius, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Turkey, Jordan, Iran, Russia, South Korea, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Egypt, and Taiwan.

   Among the control measures taken by these countries against China ’s trade in goods, 12 countries are prohibited from importing from China, namely Indonesia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, South Korea, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Armenia, Egypt, Mongolia, Cameroon And Mauritius, the main products involved are live animals, animal products and animal-related products; there are 4 countries involved in the quarantine of goods, namely India, Vietnam, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan and Cameroon; 1 country that is prohibited to carry is Iran. In addition, there are 12 countries and regions that implement export bans or restrict export measures, including India, Nepal, Iran, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Thailand, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Cambodia, and Taiwan.

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